Playful wave alert - Don't bury the North Pacific...it's not dead yet.

I was about ready to put up the "closed for the season" sign for the North Pacific Storm Track but as usual Mother Nature has different plans.

Over the past 24+ hours a decent little storm spun up into a holding position NNE of Hawaii, just off the edge of the Gulf of Alaska.

Now before you get all excited...this is definitely not a big storm...it isn't even a large or strong storm...it has just enough energy to make me want to mention it in the blog.

The good news is that it will be kicking out a string of playful sized swell for Northern California and as a bonus it will send out a small pulse of WNW energy for Southern California as well.

Here is are a few pics of the system

This is the QUIKSCAT Satellite



This is the wavewatchIII wave model



And here is the FNMOC - EFS Gale Warning ensemble (which basically tells you where strong winds are forecast to develop)



Yes I know..."lots of pretty pictures...thanks for sharing...how about some surf?"

Whatever jerks...here are the forecasts for this system

Northern California will see W-WNW swell (280-300) arriving throughout the day on Saturday and eventually peaking overnight into Sunday. As the swell peaks look for W facing breaks to have surf in the waist-shoulder high+ range while the standout spots see some overhead sets mixing in at times. Winds should be only OK for this period...NW flow around 10-15 knots will keep some of the more exposed breaks fairly bumpy...but the better westerly angle of this swell means that more energy will be able to wrap into the more protected spots. Essentially we will have some decent size surf at the sheltered areas of Santa Cruz and the Central Coast along with some protection from the wind. (also worth noting that this storm is expected to jump in the Gulf over the next 48-72 hours and in the process set up a steeper NW swell for early next week).

Southern California (and Baja Norte) will see this swell arrive slowly on Sunday...then peak Sunday afternoon into Monday. It won't be big...exposed breaks will be around knee-waist high with some chest high sets...but it will help to cross up some small SW swell at the combo breaks adding a little size, more consistency, and better shape at the top spots.

Anyway like I said nothing to get super fired up about but since the NPAC is about to close up shop I thought it would be worth mentioning.

Baja Norte: Weekend Waves…combo swell fun

NW spots will be fun over the weekend. We will have a playful mix of WNW swell holding over from Friday…and a new mix of SW and WNW swell that arrives late on Saturday and peaks into Sunday. Wave heights will hold in the waist-shoulder high range at most spots and the standout WNW breaks…particularly the beach breaks…will have some bigger head high+ sets at times. Expect similar sized waves to hold into Monday before dropping off.

Conditions look good as well. Light winds are expected through the mornings with some W winds around 10-15 knots developing through the afternoons.

Surfwise I think that most exposed spots should be fun this weekend…you just have to pick your wave flavor. I think that the biggest waves will show at the beach breaks…and could be really fun as the SW swell mixes in on Sunday. Points/Reefs will be smaller but more organized and probably a little cleaner as winds pick up in the afternoon.

Next update will be on Monday…have a great weekend!

Baja Norte: Friday...NW fun!

Look for the best surf at NW spots on Friday. We will have new WNW swell mixing with leftover NW energy and wave heights will hold fairly consistently in the waist-shoulder high range. Standout breaks that can focus these swells a bit better will have some head high sets.

Conditions are looking good too…winds will be light to light offshore in the morning and are expected to stay light (below 10 knots) through the afternoon.

I still think you are going to find the biggest surf at the beach breaks…shape will be a little walled up but if you have a decent sandbar or a jetty or something you will be able to find some corners here and there. Points and Reefs near the border should be playful but expect them to be a couple of feet smaller than the beach breaks. Points and reefs further down the coast will be even smaller…so if you are in those areas it may be worth it to hunt around for more exposed breaks.

Baja Norte: Thursday's surf - Fun beach breaks

Thursday should have some fun winter surf moving through the region. Our current WNW swell will be holding and a new slightly better aimed WNW swell is set to arrive by the evening.

Now I don’t think that the swell will be big enough to get many of the points/reefs working but I do think the beach breaks near the border and down through Ensenada will be playful with surf in the waist-shoulder high+ range. Winds should be good as well…mostly light/variable through the morning and only light onshore through the afternoon.

Further South expect the WNW’ers to be a bit smaller…and like I said above I don’t think they have enough size, the right swell angle, or a long enough swell period to get the more sheltered points working. There may be a few longboard waves along the tops of the points but that would be about it.

Baja Norte: Wednesday's Surf

We will have an increase in WNW swell on Wednesday that will help to fill in wave heights at the better winter spots. In general it will be around chest-shoulder high…but a few of the more exposed beach breaks near the border will have some bigger sets at times. Winds and weather look good as well. Clean conditions in the morning with some building onshore winds through the afternoon.

I still wouldn’t drive very far to get waves…but if you are in the area it will definitely be worth a check. Otherwise you might as well just stay and surf similar waves in San Diego.

Baja Norte: Tuesday’s Surf

Both Baja Norte and Baja Sur are looking a little on the small side as we head into Tuesday.

Baja Norte will have a mix of background SW energy, small local NW windswell, and a touch of WNW swell in the water…none of which will amount to much. I am expecting most beaches to see surf in the knee-high range with inconsistent waist high sets. The morning tide will bog even those sizes down further.

The biggest surf will be near the border…particularly at beaches that do well on the WNW-NW swell directions, and that can handle a higher tide. There may even be some chest-shoulder high sets lurking around the good sand bars. If you are thinking about heading to any other spots other than near the border I would definitely bring your small wave gear (longboard or fish). It is definitely not worth driving very far…

Weather should be nice…similar to Monday. Light morning conditions, even light offshore. W winds build in around 10-knots through the afternoon.