Tropical Storm Elida – Update

Not much has changed in the short-range portion of the forecast for TS Elida.

She is still strengthening, she will still likely become a hurricane tomorrow, and she is still tracking out W around 14-16 knots.

As of this evening Elida does look like she make it into the SoCal swell window with a little more intensity than it looked like in previous forecasts. If this lives up to be the case then we may see a little bit of tropical swell as we head toward the end of next week…likely on Thursday or Friday.

It still doesn’t look like it will be a significant swell, maybe chest-high the top SSE spots…but these new tropical waves will be mixing with a stronger and more dominant S swell coming from the Southern Hemisphere, so then could ad some extra “pop” to the surf as we head into the weekend.

Friday's Surf in Baja Sur - Where big-ass fireworks are legal

Friday will be a surf day...again it looks like the Tip and the East Cape will be the best thanks to some swell from Tropical Depression Douglas (downgraded from a Tropical Storm Thursday night).

We will have a mix of SW swell, tropical S swell, and some local windswell.

Average spots throughout Baja Sur will be in the waist-chest high+ range...with a few bigger waves at the standout combo spots.

Cabo and the East Cape will be the biggest with the tropical swell...most spots there will hold in the chest-shoulder high+ range while the standout S facing spots see some head high+ sets through the early morning and then dropping fast by the afternoon.

If you are from the US, either an ex-pat or on Vacation have a great holiday...everyone else, you guys have a great time too! Try not to blow yourselves up.

Thursday's Surf in Baja Sur - Is that TS Douglas I smell?

Thursday looks like a surf day for most of Baja Sur but it looks particularly good for the Tip and the East Cape as TS Douglas strengthens and slowly tracks toward Baja Sur (before veering off to the NW before it gets very close to land.)

We will have a mix of SW energy from the Southern Hemisphere, local WNW windswell, and slowly increasing tropical S swell from TS Douglas (and fading energy from Boris).

Most exposed spots will see waist-shoulder high surf. Standout S facing spots along the Tip will have consistent shoulder-head high surf by the afternoon...maybe even a touch bigger at the standout spots. Expect lots of consistency at the breaks that can pick up the tropical swell...the lesser exposed areas will have longer waits for waves.

If possible I would plan on staying around the Tip and the East Cape if you can. Douglas is not forecast to strengthen past Tropical Storm strength but there is always a chance that he could become more intense which would put bigger surf into the exposed breaks.

If you are not down there and are sort of on the fence about pulling the trigger to get a flight...I think that this swell/storm is still sort of a roll of the dice. It will be fun but not really worth spending a ton of money trying to chase it around.

Thursday’s Surf in Baja Sur – waiting for more swell

Thursday will be a surf day but it will be on the small side…really it will be a better day to get into position for the next SW swell which arrives on Friday and holds into the weekend.

On Thursday most spots will see a mix of SW swell and local windswell. Average breaks will be in the waist-chest high+ range while the standout SW spots and the great combo spots see some shoulder-head high waves on inconsistent sets.

The biggest waves will be on the Pacific Side…Cabo and the East Cape will be pretty small.

I actually think the beach breaks will be a bit more consistent, and a little more rideable than most other breaks on Thursday…just due mostly to the swell inconsistency and smaller size…the windswell could help cross up the beach breaks a bit better and fill in the gaps of the swell.

Again I wouldn’t drive very far to get waves on Thursday…but I would use the day to get to a better SW spot so I could get the better swell that hits over the weekend.

Wednesday's Surf in Baja Sur - A new little bump of SW swell

Wednesday will be a surf day but overall it will be on the small side, particularly when you compare it to the last couple of weeks.

We will have a mix of a new, peaking, SW pulse (210-220), SW leftovers, and some local NW windswell.

Pacific Side spots will be the biggest with the average breaks holding around waist-chest high and the top spots hitting closer to shoulder high. There may be a few bigger sets on the tide push but expect them to be on the inconsistent side.

Cabo and the East Cape will be smaller with mostly knee-waist high waves at the average spots and some rare chest high waves at the standouts (with the good tides).

I wouldn't plan on driving very far for surf on Wednesday...if you happen to find a sort-of fun/playful section I would set up camp and surf it until you can't ride it anymore...it won't be worth driving further for a similar sized wave.

Wednesday’s surf in Baja Sur – Still pumping…and still making me sad that I am not there.

SW swell continues to peak on Wednesday. It will definitely be a surf day.

I sort of hate writing this just because I wish I was down surfing some lonely right-handed point break. Instead I am chained to this silly computer. Basically if you can find a SW facing spot you can expect another round of consistent shoulder-head high surf with some sets going a couple of feet overhead at the standout spots. Expect the biggest surf to continue to show on the Pacific Side but with some still playful (but slightly smaller) waves showing around the tip and the East Cape.

NW winds will continue to blow through most of Baja Sur…expect 10-20 knot+ winds along the Pacific side and slightly more swirly/variable directions showing around the Tip/East Cape

Tuesday's Surf in Baja Sur - Don't come back

Tuesday will be a surf day.

New SW swell (195-220) will start to fill in on Tuesday and will peak through the afternoon and into Wednesday. Looks like this new swell will move in, reinforce the existing SW swell, and will mix with a bit of the local NW windswell that continues to run down the coast.

Average breaks with decent SW exposure will continue to see shoulder-head high sets with a few overhead sets mixing in at times. Standout SW breaks, mostly on the Pacific Side, will have waves going a couple of feet overhead on the best sets.

Winds are looking pretty standard for the Peninsula...mostly NW winds around 5 knots through the morning and then gusts hitting around 10-20 knots at the more exposed breaks by the afternoon.

East Cape and Cabo spots will be a touch smaller again on this SW swell direction (thanks to some shadowing by the Tip). It will still be fun but a couple of feet smaller than you will see on the Pacific Side. Winds down through the tip look a little lighter as well...mostly variable S winds through the morning and W wind around 10-15 knots by the afternoon.

Points and Reefs on the Pacific side will be the best call on Tuesday. Lots of waves, decent winds if they have some better protection. Personally I think I would stay at the longer point breaks...if only because they will offer a few different wave selections...and shit man you can ride them forever if you connect through the sections.

Surf for the weekend in Baja Sur - the second course (or is it the 3rd?)

Even more SW swell arrives over the weekend setting up a couple more "surf days" for Saturday and Sunday.

Look for the new SW'er to peak on Saturday, hold into Sunday, and then slowly start to fade on Monday (don't worry though...yet another SW swell shows next Tuesday).
Wave heights will continue to run in the chest-head high range for most SW facing spots. Standout Pacific Side breaks will have surf in the shoulder-overhead range on the sets with a few sets going a couple feet overhead on the better tides.

Cabo and the East Cape will have slightly smaller surf...more in the chest-shoulder high range with some head high+ sets at the top exposed breaks.

I think the points will have the best shape this weekend...reefs will be good too but I think the longer point-breaks will be more fun, and offer up more wave choices (big on the outside and smooth and playful on the inside). I do think that it will be worth driving a little further to hunt around for better surf...particularly if you have a few different points/reefs in the area to choose from.

Winds will continue to be on the light/moderate side. Look for NW flow around 10 knots for the mornings and gusts near 15 knots by the afternoons.

Overall it should be a great surf weekend in Baja...I wish that my father's day present was to sit at some lonely point break down that way.

Have a great weekend and an excellent Father's Day!

Friday’s Surf in Baja Sur – Small, rideable, and waiting for the next swell

Friday will be a surf day…but it is going to feel like the ocean is on mute after the last few days of swell.

Our SW’er will have wound down to just playful sizes in most areas…look for lots of waist-chest high waves at the average spots while the standout areas see some bigger chest-shoulder high sets mixing in at times.

Biggest surf will be along the Pacific side…Cabo and the East Cape will be quite a bit weaker.

Overall it will be a good day to recover from the bigger surf early in the week. Have a couple beers, fish, do some chores…just rest the arms.
There is more SW swell on the way that starts filling in on Saturday and will peak into Sunday…so expect more overhead surf at the top spots as we head into the weekend.

Yeah for more swell!

Wednesday’s Surf in Baja Sur – Lots o SW swell

Wednesday will continue the trend of good surf days.

SW swell continues to push in throughout the day but it will start to lose a little steam off the bigger waves. Expect a very slow and gradual fade in wave heights as we move into the afternoon.

Expect the average SW facing breaks to have surf in the shoulder-head high range while the standout SW spots on the Pacific Side pull in overhead+ sets.

Winds will continue to push out of the NW around 10-15 knots for most of the Pacific side breaks. Cabo and the East Cape can expect the variable-S morning winds before shifting more to the W around 10-13 knots for the afternoon.

I still think that points and reefs will be the call on Wednesday…they are going to be able to hold the shape better, offer longer rides, and easier paddles than the more walled up beach breaks.

Weekend Surf in Baja Sur - You'll get some good waves...you lucky jerks

Saturday, Sunday, and Monday will all be surf days...hell you guys will have waves all the way through the 11th.

For the weekend though look for waves in the waist-shoulder high range at the average SW facing spots (mostly along the Pacific side and some of the really exposed breaks along the tip of Baja). The Standout Pacific side breaks will see sets in the head high and even slightly overhead range.

The tides will be a bit of an issue at times but if you stick to spots that can work on a variety of tides you should be ok.

Again expect sets to be a bit on the inconsistent side but fun when they show...I would stick with the exposed points and reefs for the best shape.

Have fun...hopefully you aren't sitting at home reading this and kicking yourself because you aren't down surfing in Baja somewhere. (like I am)

Have a great weekend!

Weekend Surf in Baja Sur - Getting the job done

Saturday and Sunday both look like surf days.

We will have a mix of peaking S swell, background SW energy, and local NW windswell, on Saturday that will fade slowly on Sunday.

Most spots will hold around waist-chest high while the standout S facing areas will pull in some inconsistent shoulder high+ sets...(particularly on Saturday but becoming less frequent as we move into Sunday).

Winds should be ok as well...NW around 5-15 knots for most of the pacific side. Cabo and the East Cape will have variable S-W winds around 3-8 knots throughout the day...cleanest around midmorning.

Travel Swell Alert: Another large SW swell heading to Central America and Mainland Mexico

We have got another strong storm brewing down near New Zealand that is looking to send a hefty SW swell to Central America and Mainland Mexico later this month.

California and Baja Mexico will also see some waves from this one but they will be quite a bit smaller.

Short-range forecasts are expecting this storm to be a beast...NOAA's WavewatchIII is predicting nearly 40-50' seas in the core of this system. Here check out this image from the swell model.



You can check out the animated version of this here

http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/waves/latest_run/nww3_pa.anim.gif


Here is a shot of the swell (in swell period form) about 6+ days from this post.




As you can see it sent a pretty solid blast of energy towards Tahiti and then on to Central America and Mainland Mexico. You can also see the South Pacific Island shadowing that occurs on SW swells (it is always sad to see that gap in the swell line up perfectly with SoCal...damn islands).

Here is the animation run for the swell period...you can watch the swell move across the pacific.

http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/waves/latest_run/nww3_pa.anim.2.gif

If you look close you can actually see that the bigger swell isn't the only one in the water...there are actually a couple of other SW swells that have been kicked out. This is great from a travel perspective...it means that you aren't putting all your eggs in one basket...so you will have a good chance to score a longer run of waves.


Ok enough about the storm here are the arrival times and details on the swell.

Central America and Mainland Mexico - Since the swell is pretty SW in swell direction (210-225) it is actually going to both regions about the same time. There is another smaller SW swell coming in from the same direction that arrives on June 6th and holds around for a couple of days. This first one looks good for head high and overhead surf at the standout breaks maybe even a few bigger sets at top spots. The bigger swell hits on June 9-10th with surf in the overhead to well-overhead range for most areas while the standouts, mostly in Southern Mainland Mexico and Northern Central America see double-overhead+ sets. Spots light Puerto Escondido will probably go bigger than that as well. There will be some shadowing for Costa Rica and Panama from the Galapagos islands...so expect smaller surf in those countries. One other thing to keep in mind is the weather...TS Alma just got done douching the area with rain...it may not be very easy to travel to the more remote spots.

Baja Sur - The first SW'er (205-220) hits Baja Sur around 7th and sets up some shoulder-head high surf for the standout breaks on the Pacific Side...the Tip/East Cape may be a bit shadowed so expect smaller less consistent surf through that area. The second, bigger, SW swell peaks on the 10-11th with more shoulder-head high+ surf for the average spots and inconsistent overhead+ sets at the standout breaks. If you head down this way try and keep in mind that while there will be decent waves in this area it will lack a lot of consistency...especially compared to a swell coming in from a more southerly swell direction. So plan on it being fun...but not all-time.

Southern California and Baja Norte - Socal will have the first SW'er (200-220) limp in around the 7-8th...not the greatest swell for SoCal but it will put some chest-shoulder high sets at the top breaks in South OC and San Diego. The second, larger SW'er hits on the 11th with average spots building into the chest high+ range while the standouts, again in San Diego and South Orange County, see shoulder-head high sets. (I am being a bit conservative...there may be a bigger set sneaking though at times).

Nor/Central California – It actually hits about the same time as SoCal so you would be seeing the first swell on the 7-8th and the peak of the larger swell around the 11th. This one should be good for some head high sets at the standout SW facing spots…and you won’t suffer as much inconsistency as SoCal.

Anyway that is what I got for now...we still have enough lead time to get a cheaper plane ticket (if you get on it in the next day or so.) As usual if you head out of town make sure to send me some pictures and let me know how it was.

Thursday's Surf in Baja Sur - New S swell and a bit more wind.

Thursday will be a surf day...but it may get a bit breezy in the afternoon.

New S swell starts to move into Baja Sur on Thursday and mix with our current (but inconsistent) SW swell, local windswell, and some remnant S-SW energy still lurking around in the background.

In general it will start off a bit slow in the morning. Most breaks will continue to run in the waist-chest high range while the standout combo spots and really good S-SW facing breaks see some inconsistent bigger sets.

Look for that new S swell to fill in more as we move through the afternoon...eventually getting the exposed areas (Particularly around the Tip) into more consistent chest-shoulder high sets along with a few bigger waves sneaking through at times.

Winds look like they start off mostly clean with light and variable morning conditions along both the Tip and the Pacific Side. By the afternoon Pacific Side spots will have NW winds around 10-15+ knots...the tip will have some W bump around the same speed. East Cape areas will get a bit of the weird eddy off the tip and will have some variable S bump (but under 10 knots) by the afternoon.

Get to the S facing spots if you can...don't expect a ton of waves in the morning but it will be worth it to be in position as the swell starts to peak during the afternoon and into Friday.

Wednesday’s Waves in Baja Sur – more summer fun

Looks like a surf day in Baja Sur…I guess I will claim it surf-hump day. (Sounds good)

Anyway we have a blend of S swells and some local NW windswell setting up the surf for the day. It looks good for a waist-chest high+ surf for the average exposed breaks while the standout S facing areas, particularly along the tip and the east cape, see some shoulder-head high waves on the better sets.

It will be a bit inconsistent at times but should see a decent run of waves as the tide push moves through.

Personally I would stick with the top spots…they are the top breaks for a reason…they will help to focus the swell a bit better and will be more consistent than the out of the way breaks.

On another note there is a new tropical disturbance developing near Central America…they are expecting it to slowly develop over the next few days. Who knows we might get lucky and get an early season Tropical Storm to break loose as we get closer to the weekend.

Tuesday’s Surf in Baja Sur – a few playful ones

Tuesday looks like a surf day…not huge…but playful.

We will have a mix of inconsistent SW swell along with S swell and local NW windswell. Most spots will have surf in the waist-chest high range while the top combo spots and good S facing breaks along the tip will see some inconsistent shoulder high sets.

Winds look ok as well. NW flow around 10-15 knots will push through most of the day…showing strongest through the afternoon.

I would plan on trying to surf a well exposed break on Tuesday…something that really brings in a lot of swell…not one of the more sheltered point breaks. I also wouldn’t plan on wasting a lot of time or gas finding waves. Check the good/close spots…but don’t empty the tank hunting down surf that isn’t there.

Sorry there was a little lag on the Baja forecast...just got swamped out by the holiday weekend.

Weekend Surf in Baja Sur – more swell on the way!

Baja Sur will have a surf weekend.

Saturday will be a bit slow as we try and pull in mostly leftover energy but new S swell starts to fill in on Sunday and should have some decent surf showing at the standouts by the end of the day (the new S-SE swell peaks Monday and Tuesday).

Saturday will see mostly waist-chest high surf off the S swell and the local windswell. A few of the best combo breaks and great S facing standouts may have some inconsistent shoulder high sets on the tide push.

Sunday will have slowly building S-SE swell that fills in slowly through the day. Look for waist-shoulder high surf at the top spots through the morning and near head high+ surf arriving by the afternoon/evening. (looks like Monday should have sets going a couple of feet overhead by midday).

Winds and weather are looking good but Saturday may be a bit breezy with W winds around 10-15 knots for most areas...though it does look cleaner for the more northerly Baja Sur spots on the Pacific Side.

Sunday is much cleaner with light and variable winds through most of the region and only moderate onshore flow through the afternoon.

Really you should try and get into position for the bigger S-SE swell on Saturday….there should be enough energy coming from the lead elements of the storm that you will have some playful waves…but with the main push of swell arriving Monday and Tuesday you are going to want to be camped out at a good S facing reef/point. I personally would sacrifice some surf on Saturday to score Sunday/Monday/Tuesday.

Good Luck and send me pictures!

Thursday in Baja Sur - S swell, a few waves, and waiting for the bigger swell this weekend

Thursday will be a surf day in Baja...nothing great but not flat either...just, well, sort of surfable.

We will have a mix of lingering S swell and local NW windswell. Most spots will continue to see waves in the knee-chest high range while a few of the best breaks, mostly the combo breaks, see some chest high+ sets.

Winds start off light with mostly W-NW flow but under 5 knots. Look for onshore winds out of the WNW around 10-15+ knots by the afternoon.

Again I don't think it will be worth hunting around for surf on Thursday so just stick with the local spots...maybe you will get lucky on the lower tides. Really I would just spend the next couple of days playing around and then move to a good S facing spot for the new S-SE swell arriving late in the weekend. (Yeah for S swell!)

Swell Alert - New S-SE swell for Southern California and Baja

There has been an evil-looking nugget of a storm spinning down in the SPAC over the last few days.

QuikSCAT was recording nearly 50-60 knots of wind in an area of fetch aimed mostly towards Baja and, to a lesser degree, Southern California

Here check out this chart



This is a close up of the storms core...see the black wind barbs...the ones with the little triangles indicate 50 knots of wind...the ones with the triangle and extra lines means +50 knots (10 knots for each full line).



And here is the lovely, yet super small, WWIII visual product viewer...along with my usual incredibly artistic arrows. (man I need to get adobe illustrator on my computer at work...photoshop is killing me).



Anyway this storm has been holding in place for a few days which is pretty good for swell production. It actually started off a little less intense...so it pushed out some weaker S swell before it set up a bigger lump of energy.

From a surf standpoint Baja Sur, in particular the Tip/East Cape areas, will see the biggest part of this swell.

SoCal will see a smaller, but still fun, version of the same swell at the good S facing breaks once the swell moves up into our area.

Here are the more specific details...

Baja Sur
Baja will see this new S-SE swell (170-185) arrive on Sunday the 18th and fill in slowly through the day. Eventually the swell peaks on Monday and Tuesday (May 19-20) with surf in the shoulder-overhead+ range for most exposed breaks and top standout areas see sets going 2-3' overhead at times. It should be a fairly consistent swell in the Baja Sur/Tip area thanks to the open swell window...but expect size to drop off a touch as you move up the Pacific side.

Southern California
SoCal will see this new S-SE swell (170-180) arrive on Monday May 19 and build slowly at exposed breaks throughout the day. It will actually be overlapping a smaller pulse of S swell already in the water so it should be pretty fun even though the bigger swell won't really get going through the afternoon. The S-SE'er will actually peak Tuesday and Wednesday (May 20-21). Look for the average exposed breaks to see chest-shoulder high+ surf. Standout spots, mostly through Orange County and a few other select areas, see head high and overhead sets. Weather (at least at this point) is looking good for this swell...cross your fingers that the wind forecasts hold together.

Wednesday’s leftovers in Baja Sur – still fun but it is stretching a little thin

More leftover S swell will limp in on Wednesday and mix with a touch of local WNW windswell and background energy.

Most spots will be around waist high while the standout combo breaks see some inconsistent chest high+ sets. Expect a lot of the power of the swell to have faded out leaving the surf on the gutless side.

Don’t spend a lot of time driving around looking for waves…not much will be showing anywhere. You might stick to spots that have something else to do besides surf (IE fish, golf, drink, go to the strip-clubs, ect, ect)