Saturday and Sunday both look like surf days.
We will have a mix of peaking S swell, background SW energy, and local NW windswell, on Saturday that will fade slowly on Sunday.
Most spots will hold around waist-chest high while the standout S facing areas will pull in some inconsistent shoulder high+ sets...(particularly on Saturday but becoming less frequent as we move into Sunday).
Winds should be ok as well...NW around 5-15 knots for most of the pacific side. Cabo and the East Cape will have variable S-W winds around 3-8 knots throughout the day...cleanest around midmorning.
Friday, May 30, 2008
Travel Swell Alert: Another large SW swell heading to Central America and Mainland Mexico
We have got another strong storm brewing down near New Zealand that is looking to send a hefty SW swell to Central America and Mainland Mexico later this month.
California and Baja Mexico will also see some waves from this one but they will be quite a bit smaller.
Short-range forecasts are expecting this storm to be a beast...NOAA's WavewatchIII is predicting nearly 40-50' seas in the core of this system. Here check out this image from the swell model.
You can check out the animated version of this here
http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/waves/latest_run/nww3_pa.anim.gif
Here is a shot of the swell (in swell period form) about 6+ days from this post.
As you can see it sent a pretty solid blast of energy towards Tahiti and then on to Central America and Mainland Mexico. You can also see the South Pacific Island shadowing that occurs on SW swells (it is always sad to see that gap in the swell line up perfectly with SoCal...damn islands).
Here is the animation run for the swell period...you can watch the swell move across the pacific.
http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/waves/latest_run/nww3_pa.anim.2.gif
If you look close you can actually see that the bigger swell isn't the only one in the water...there are actually a couple of other SW swells that have been kicked out. This is great from a travel perspective...it means that you aren't putting all your eggs in one basket...so you will have a good chance to score a longer run of waves.
Ok enough about the storm here are the arrival times and details on the swell.
Central America and Mainland Mexico - Since the swell is pretty SW in swell direction (210-225) it is actually going to both regions about the same time. There is another smaller SW swell coming in from the same direction that arrives on June 6th and holds around for a couple of days. This first one looks good for head high and overhead surf at the standout breaks maybe even a few bigger sets at top spots. The bigger swell hits on June 9-10th with surf in the overhead to well-overhead range for most areas while the standouts, mostly in Southern Mainland Mexico and Northern Central America see double-overhead+ sets. Spots light Puerto Escondido will probably go bigger than that as well. There will be some shadowing for Costa Rica and Panama from the Galapagos islands...so expect smaller surf in those countries. One other thing to keep in mind is the weather...TS Alma just got done douching the area with rain...it may not be very easy to travel to the more remote spots.
Baja Sur - The first SW'er (205-220) hits Baja Sur around 7th and sets up some shoulder-head high surf for the standout breaks on the Pacific Side...the Tip/East Cape may be a bit shadowed so expect smaller less consistent surf through that area. The second, bigger, SW swell peaks on the 10-11th with more shoulder-head high+ surf for the average spots and inconsistent overhead+ sets at the standout breaks. If you head down this way try and keep in mind that while there will be decent waves in this area it will lack a lot of consistency...especially compared to a swell coming in from a more southerly swell direction. So plan on it being fun...but not all-time.
Southern California and Baja Norte - Socal will have the first SW'er (200-220) limp in around the 7-8th...not the greatest swell for SoCal but it will put some chest-shoulder high sets at the top breaks in South OC and San Diego. The second, larger SW'er hits on the 11th with average spots building into the chest high+ range while the standouts, again in San Diego and South Orange County, see shoulder-head high sets. (I am being a bit conservative...there may be a bigger set sneaking though at times).
Nor/Central California – It actually hits about the same time as SoCal so you would be seeing the first swell on the 7-8th and the peak of the larger swell around the 11th. This one should be good for some head high sets at the standout SW facing spots…and you won’t suffer as much inconsistency as SoCal.
Anyway that is what I got for now...we still have enough lead time to get a cheaper plane ticket (if you get on it in the next day or so.) As usual if you head out of town make sure to send me some pictures and let me know how it was.
California and Baja Mexico will also see some waves from this one but they will be quite a bit smaller.
Short-range forecasts are expecting this storm to be a beast...NOAA's WavewatchIII is predicting nearly 40-50' seas in the core of this system. Here check out this image from the swell model.
You can check out the animated version of this here
http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/waves/latest_run/nww3_pa.anim.gif
Here is a shot of the swell (in swell period form) about 6+ days from this post.
As you can see it sent a pretty solid blast of energy towards Tahiti and then on to Central America and Mainland Mexico. You can also see the South Pacific Island shadowing that occurs on SW swells (it is always sad to see that gap in the swell line up perfectly with SoCal...damn islands).
Here is the animation run for the swell period...you can watch the swell move across the pacific.
http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/waves/latest_run/nww3_pa.anim.2.gif
If you look close you can actually see that the bigger swell isn't the only one in the water...there are actually a couple of other SW swells that have been kicked out. This is great from a travel perspective...it means that you aren't putting all your eggs in one basket...so you will have a good chance to score a longer run of waves.
Ok enough about the storm here are the arrival times and details on the swell.
Central America and Mainland Mexico - Since the swell is pretty SW in swell direction (210-225) it is actually going to both regions about the same time. There is another smaller SW swell coming in from the same direction that arrives on June 6th and holds around for a couple of days. This first one looks good for head high and overhead surf at the standout breaks maybe even a few bigger sets at top spots. The bigger swell hits on June 9-10th with surf in the overhead to well-overhead range for most areas while the standouts, mostly in Southern Mainland Mexico and Northern Central America see double-overhead+ sets. Spots light Puerto Escondido will probably go bigger than that as well. There will be some shadowing for Costa Rica and Panama from the Galapagos islands...so expect smaller surf in those countries. One other thing to keep in mind is the weather...TS Alma just got done douching the area with rain...it may not be very easy to travel to the more remote spots.
Baja Sur - The first SW'er (205-220) hits Baja Sur around 7th and sets up some shoulder-head high surf for the standout breaks on the Pacific Side...the Tip/East Cape may be a bit shadowed so expect smaller less consistent surf through that area. The second, bigger, SW swell peaks on the 10-11th with more shoulder-head high+ surf for the average spots and inconsistent overhead+ sets at the standout breaks. If you head down this way try and keep in mind that while there will be decent waves in this area it will lack a lot of consistency...especially compared to a swell coming in from a more southerly swell direction. So plan on it being fun...but not all-time.
Southern California and Baja Norte - Socal will have the first SW'er (200-220) limp in around the 7-8th...not the greatest swell for SoCal but it will put some chest-shoulder high sets at the top breaks in South OC and San Diego. The second, larger SW'er hits on the 11th with average spots building into the chest high+ range while the standouts, again in San Diego and South Orange County, see shoulder-head high sets. (I am being a bit conservative...there may be a bigger set sneaking though at times).
Nor/Central California – It actually hits about the same time as SoCal so you would be seeing the first swell on the 7-8th and the peak of the larger swell around the 11th. This one should be good for some head high sets at the standout SW facing spots…and you won’t suffer as much inconsistency as SoCal.
Anyway that is what I got for now...we still have enough lead time to get a cheaper plane ticket (if you get on it in the next day or so.) As usual if you head out of town make sure to send me some pictures and let me know how it was.
Thursday, May 29, 2008
Tropical Alert – Tropical Storm Alma
Hey gang we got our first Tropical Depression last night, which has now turned into a Tropical storm, and may become a hurricane later today.
Before you get too excited look at where it is located…
It is pressed right up against Central America and it is forecast to move back over land before it dissipates, (which means no surf for us.)
Here is how the odds of getting swell of break out right now.
Chance of getting surf in SoCal – 0%
Chance of getting surf in Baja Sur – 0%
Chance of getting surf in NorCal - 0% (I wish I could put less than zero)
Chance of Central America getting slammed by heavy rain, lightening, and flash floods – pretty damn good
Anyway even though it isn’t a swell-maker I thought I would pass it along. It shows that there is potential in the EPAC for more storm formation. Cross your fingers that we get one to spin up in our swell-window before too long.
I probably won’t be issuing a ton of posts on each storm (just as they increase surf potential)…so if you need more information or just more consistent updated make sure to check out the National Hurricane Center website.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index.shtml
Before you get too excited look at where it is located…
It is pressed right up against Central America and it is forecast to move back over land before it dissipates, (which means no surf for us.)
Here is how the odds of getting swell of break out right now.
Chance of getting surf in SoCal – 0%
Chance of getting surf in Baja Sur – 0%
Chance of getting surf in NorCal - 0% (I wish I could put less than zero)
Chance of Central America getting slammed by heavy rain, lightening, and flash floods – pretty damn good
Anyway even though it isn’t a swell-maker I thought I would pass it along. It shows that there is potential in the EPAC for more storm formation. Cross your fingers that we get one to spin up in our swell-window before too long.
I probably won’t be issuing a ton of posts on each storm (just as they increase surf potential)…so if you need more information or just more consistent updated make sure to check out the National Hurricane Center website.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index.shtml
Wednesday, May 28, 2008
Thursday's Surf in Baja Sur - New S swell and a bit more wind.
Thursday will be a surf day...but it may get a bit breezy in the afternoon.
New S swell starts to move into Baja Sur on Thursday and mix with our current (but inconsistent) SW swell, local windswell, and some remnant S-SW energy still lurking around in the background.
In general it will start off a bit slow in the morning. Most breaks will continue to run in the waist-chest high range while the standout combo spots and really good S-SW facing breaks see some inconsistent bigger sets.
Look for that new S swell to fill in more as we move through the afternoon...eventually getting the exposed areas (Particularly around the Tip) into more consistent chest-shoulder high sets along with a few bigger waves sneaking through at times.
Winds look like they start off mostly clean with light and variable morning conditions along both the Tip and the Pacific Side. By the afternoon Pacific Side spots will have NW winds around 10-15+ knots...the tip will have some W bump around the same speed. East Cape areas will get a bit of the weird eddy off the tip and will have some variable S bump (but under 10 knots) by the afternoon.
Get to the S facing spots if you can...don't expect a ton of waves in the morning but it will be worth it to be in position as the swell starts to peak during the afternoon and into Friday.
New S swell starts to move into Baja Sur on Thursday and mix with our current (but inconsistent) SW swell, local windswell, and some remnant S-SW energy still lurking around in the background.
In general it will start off a bit slow in the morning. Most breaks will continue to run in the waist-chest high range while the standout combo spots and really good S-SW facing breaks see some inconsistent bigger sets.
Look for that new S swell to fill in more as we move through the afternoon...eventually getting the exposed areas (Particularly around the Tip) into more consistent chest-shoulder high sets along with a few bigger waves sneaking through at times.
Winds look like they start off mostly clean with light and variable morning conditions along both the Tip and the Pacific Side. By the afternoon Pacific Side spots will have NW winds around 10-15+ knots...the tip will have some W bump around the same speed. East Cape areas will get a bit of the weird eddy off the tip and will have some variable S bump (but under 10 knots) by the afternoon.
Get to the S facing spots if you can...don't expect a ton of waves in the morning but it will be worth it to be in position as the swell starts to peak during the afternoon and into Friday.
Another Fatal Shark Attack in Ixtapa Mexico
I know I am a couple of days behind but I just caught this story on the interweb and thought I would pass it along in case some of you missed it.
According to news sources there have actually been 2 new shark attacks, one of them fatal, down around Ixtapa-Zihuatanejo coastline in Mainland Mexico.
If you remember Adrian Ruiz a surfer from San Francisco bleed to death from a shark attack while surfing the nearby area of Troncones Beach in April.
These latest attacks were reported at a beach called Pantla and at Playa Linda beach.
At Pantla Beach, Osvaldo Mata, was reported to have been mauled by a large 6' shark which bit off his hand and gouged his thigh. Apparently his brave friends paddled over and helped him to shore but he died of his wounds before medics arrived.
You can read more about the fatal attack here
http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSN2430753720080524
The second attack, which occurred a couple of days later at Playa Linda, was on Texan Bruce Grimes. According to the news article the shark gave him a quick swim-by and then snagged his arm as he was trying to get back to the beach. After a bit of a struggle Grimes apparently was able get away from the shark and make his way to shore and eventually drive to medical help where he ending up with something close to 100 stitches. (Got to give the man credit for keeping his shit together enough to get to help.)
You can read more about the attack at Playa Linda Here http://www.reuters.com/article/latestCrisis/idUSN26346680
Man this is crazy...it really seems like 2008 has been a horrible year for shark attacks both domestically and internationally. (If some of you have seen a story about year to year frequency of shark attacks forward it on).
I love animals and nature as much as the next guy (if not more) but I am definitely starting to have issues with humans getting pushed back into the food chain.
According to news sources there have actually been 2 new shark attacks, one of them fatal, down around Ixtapa-Zihuatanejo coastline in Mainland Mexico.
If you remember Adrian Ruiz a surfer from San Francisco bleed to death from a shark attack while surfing the nearby area of Troncones Beach in April.
These latest attacks were reported at a beach called Pantla and at Playa Linda beach.
At Pantla Beach, Osvaldo Mata, was reported to have been mauled by a large 6' shark which bit off his hand and gouged his thigh. Apparently his brave friends paddled over and helped him to shore but he died of his wounds before medics arrived.
You can read more about the fatal attack here
http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSN2430753720080524
The second attack, which occurred a couple of days later at Playa Linda, was on Texan Bruce Grimes. According to the news article the shark gave him a quick swim-by and then snagged his arm as he was trying to get back to the beach. After a bit of a struggle Grimes apparently was able get away from the shark and make his way to shore and eventually drive to medical help where he ending up with something close to 100 stitches. (Got to give the man credit for keeping his shit together enough to get to help.)
You can read more about the attack at Playa Linda Here http://www.reuters.com/article/latestCrisis/idUSN26346680
Man this is crazy...it really seems like 2008 has been a horrible year for shark attacks both domestically and internationally. (If some of you have seen a story about year to year frequency of shark attacks forward it on).
I love animals and nature as much as the next guy (if not more) but I am definitely starting to have issues with humans getting pushed back into the food chain.
Tuesday, May 27, 2008
Wednesday’s Waves in Baja Sur – more summer fun
Looks like a surf day in Baja Sur…I guess I will claim it surf-hump day. (Sounds good)
Anyway we have a blend of S swells and some local NW windswell setting up the surf for the day. It looks good for a waist-chest high+ surf for the average exposed breaks while the standout S facing areas, particularly along the tip and the east cape, see some shoulder-head high waves on the better sets.
It will be a bit inconsistent at times but should see a decent run of waves as the tide push moves through.
Personally I would stick with the top spots…they are the top breaks for a reason…they will help to focus the swell a bit better and will be more consistent than the out of the way breaks.
On another note there is a new tropical disturbance developing near Central America…they are expecting it to slowly develop over the next few days. Who knows we might get lucky and get an early season Tropical Storm to break loose as we get closer to the weekend.
Anyway we have a blend of S swells and some local NW windswell setting up the surf for the day. It looks good for a waist-chest high+ surf for the average exposed breaks while the standout S facing areas, particularly along the tip and the east cape, see some shoulder-head high waves on the better sets.
It will be a bit inconsistent at times but should see a decent run of waves as the tide push moves through.
Personally I would stick with the top spots…they are the top breaks for a reason…they will help to focus the swell a bit better and will be more consistent than the out of the way breaks.
On another note there is a new tropical disturbance developing near Central America…they are expecting it to slowly develop over the next few days. Who knows we might get lucky and get an early season Tropical Storm to break loose as we get closer to the weekend.
Monday, May 26, 2008
Tuesday’s Surf in Baja Sur – a few playful ones
Tuesday looks like a surf day…not huge…but playful.
We will have a mix of inconsistent SW swell along with S swell and local NW windswell. Most spots will have surf in the waist-chest high range while the top combo spots and good S facing breaks along the tip will see some inconsistent shoulder high sets.
Winds look ok as well. NW flow around 10-15 knots will push through most of the day…showing strongest through the afternoon.
I would plan on trying to surf a well exposed break on Tuesday…something that really brings in a lot of swell…not one of the more sheltered point breaks. I also wouldn’t plan on wasting a lot of time or gas finding waves. Check the good/close spots…but don’t empty the tank hunting down surf that isn’t there.
Sorry there was a little lag on the Baja forecast...just got swamped out by the holiday weekend.
We will have a mix of inconsistent SW swell along with S swell and local NW windswell. Most spots will have surf in the waist-chest high range while the top combo spots and good S facing breaks along the tip will see some inconsistent shoulder high sets.
Winds look ok as well. NW flow around 10-15 knots will push through most of the day…showing strongest through the afternoon.
I would plan on trying to surf a well exposed break on Tuesday…something that really brings in a lot of swell…not one of the more sheltered point breaks. I also wouldn’t plan on wasting a lot of time or gas finding waves. Check the good/close spots…but don’t empty the tank hunting down surf that isn’t there.
Sorry there was a little lag on the Baja forecast...just got swamped out by the holiday weekend.
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